1Day Sooner is thrilled to launch a forecasting competition aimed at predicting the impact of human challenge trials in the development of a hepatitis C vaccine. Building on a study by Professor Alyssa Bilinski from Brown University, we are inviting forecasters to model the potential reduction in HCV infections that challenge studies could facilitate in comparison to traditional research methods. The winner will have the additional opportunity to provide a paid critical review of the Bilinski paper.
Participants: We are commissioning eight forecasters who will have access to HCV experts through 1Day Sooner. Selection is on a “first-come, first-served” basis, with potential evaluation of analytical skills on platforms like Metaculus. The competition is further open to additional participants without funding from 1Day Sooner.
Compensation: Forecasters will receive US$800 each for their submissions. An additional $1,500 prize will be awarded to the creator of the most comprehensive model, for providing a critique of the Bilinski model. An unfunded winning participant will receive an extra $800.
Submissions: Participants will submit a document including a quantitative model, projected output estimates, and a detailed explanation of the model’s development and inputs. Models can range from simple cumulative probability to complex statistical approaches. There is a 2,500 word submission limit, excluding references, code, and formulas.
Judging: A panel consisting of two forecasters and three external judges will evaluate entries based on relevance, comprehensiveness, and clarity. The top three models will be publicly discussed.
Timeline: The competition starts on February 7th, 2024, with final submissions due by March 7th, 2024. Participants have two months to submit their projects, and judges will have one month post-competition to review.
The full document describing this competition can be found here. If you are interested, please drop a single line stating your interest, name and availability to callum.howard@1daysooner.org.